[Salon] The Ukraine war and Sudan



The Ukraine war and Sudan

Summary: the military that now runs the country is unprepared to cope with the food crisis caused by Putin’s war.

Monday marked the six month anniversary of the military coup in Sudan that toppled the transitional government of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.  Since then, the military and its leadership in the persons of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sovereignty Council and his deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemeti, have kept a tight grip on power and come down hard on civilian demonstrators.

Since the October coup 90 protesters have been killed and dozens wounded as the army continues to use live ammunition; tear gas and baton attacks have injured hundreds more. Al-Burhan cited as a reason for the takeover the economic crisis that the country found itself in. But the military council has done nothing to ease that crisis. Rather the opposite as the army strives to protect and enhance its economic investments while denying calls for democracy.

On 23 February, on the eve of the invasion, Hemeti flew to Moscow leading a delegation that met with the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.  It was  billed as part of an effort to strengthen military and economic ties with the Kremlin. The boss of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, formerly known as the Janjaweed, commented that “Russia has the right to act in the interests of its citizens and protect its people under the constitution and the law.” In all probability Hemeti was assuming, as Putin had, that the war against Ukraine would be over very quickly.

If so, he seriously underestimated the determination of the Ukrainian people to fight for their independence and for democracy. And clearly Hemeti had not calculated that the war could do severe damage to the authority of the military junta in Khartoum. But Sudan relies on Ukraine and Russia for more than a third of its wheat.  The World Food Programme has said that nearly half the population of 44 million will fall into what it called “acute food insecurity.”

Corinne Fleischer, the WFP’s regional MENA director was speaking more broadly but had Sudan in mind when she noted:

“We are extremely concerned about the millions of people in this region who are already struggling to access enough food because of a toxic combination of conflict, climate change and the economic aftermath of Covid-19. People’s resilience is at a breaking point. This crisis is creating shock waves in the food markets that touch every home in this region. No one is spared.”

Rampant price rises sparked by the invasion have further exacerbated a situation that had already witnessed the collapse of the Sudan pound after it was devalued  on 8 March, reducing purchasing power by a fifth.

Civilians who had come into the streets in the days and weeks after the coup calling for a return to a transitional government that would put Sudan on the road to a democracy now face the harshly existential threat of hunger set against the backdrop of a military regime showing itself to be not only brutal and corrupt but incompetent in the face of the accelerating food crisis caused by Putin’s war.

That may be why the junta released 25 protesters on 22 April. Their release was noted in a tweet from the Emergency Lawyers Committee which decried the continued detention of dozens of others: “Freedom,” the lawyers tweeted “is a right not a gift.”

Among those still held incommunicado is a former cabinet minister in Hamdok’s civilian government Khalid Omar Yousif. He had also been engaged with a task force aimed at reclaiming properties for the state held by the former dictator Omar al-Bashir who was overthrown in the uprising of 2019. In a gesture of support the British Embassy set an empty place for Yousif at an iftar meal on 22 April.

With various reports that al-Burhan and Hemeti are jousting with each other to see who will gain ascendancy in a newly entrenched military dictatorship the latter may come to regret his junket to Moscow as the war drags on and Russia’s military inadequacies on the battlefield further reinforce Putin’s international pariah status. But for both men, as they compete for power and authority, the war represents an immediate threat.

Kholood Khair from the Insight Strategy Partners think-tank in Khartoum made a salient point when she was interviewed by Al Jazeera:

The food insecurity issue is … one of the reasons that Omar al-Bashir fell. The inability of Burhan and Hemeti to manage the hunger crisis will be a big challenge … Russia won’t be able to just give them wheat.


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